TDEE Not Losing Weight

On this page

1. First, check the basics
2. The nine usual causes
3. How much each cause can hide
4. A tenth possibility: you are gaining muscle
5. The checklist
6. Measure your real TDEE
7. What to do next
8. Questions when you are not losing weight

First, check the basics

Before going through the causes, make sure you are measuring progress properly. Weigh yourself every morning after the toilet and before eating or drinking, and compare weekly averages, not single days. Measure your waist every week too. If your waist is shrinking, you are losing fat even if the scale is slow.

The nine usual causes

1. It’s too soon

In the first week or two of a new target, water can move the scale more than fat does. If you also started a new training plan, your muscles may be holding extra water for repair. Three to four weeks is the minimum before you can judge a target.

2. Your TDEE estimate is too high

A calculator is an estimate, usually within about 10%, and the activity level you chose is the biggest source of error. If you picked “moderately active” for three gym sessions but sit most of the day, your real TDEE may be 250 to 350 kcal lower, enough to erase a planned deficit. Try the activity level calculator, and see how accurate TDEE calculators are.

3. Hidden calories

Almost everyone underestimates what they eat. In one well-known study, people who believed they couldn’t lose weight on low intakes were eating far more than they recorded, and moving less than they reported. The usual suspects:

• cooking oil, butter and ghee: about 120 kcal per tablespoon, often poured rather than measured;
• drinks: juice, sugary coffee, smoothies, alcohol;
• sauces, dressings and spreads: a “spoon” of peanut butter is often two tablespoons, close to 200 kcal;
• bites, tastes and leftovers while cooking or clearing up;
• meals out, where portions and fat are often much larger than at home.

4. Logging errors

Even careful loggers make technical mistakes. The biggest is mixing up raw and cooked weights: 100 g of uncooked rice is about 360 kcal, while 100 g of cooked rice is about 130 kcal. Log cooked rice against a raw entry, or the reverse, and you are out by a factor of almost three. Duplicate or wrong database entries and guessed portion sizes add more error. Weigh food for a week with a kitchen scale to see where your numbers really are.

5. Weekends cancel weekdays

Here is how it happens. Five weekdays at 500 kcal below TDEE give a weekly deficit of 2,500 kcal. Two weekend days at 1,250 kcal above TDEE, a takeaway, a few drinks, a big brunch, add 2,500 kcal back. Net change for the week: zero. Track the whole week, and plan for weekends rather than hoping they won’t count.

6. Eating back exercise calories

If your target came from an activity level, your usual training is already counted. Eating back a watch’s or a machine’s estimate counts it twice. See should you eat back exercise calories?

7. Water retention

Salt, stress, poor sleep, hard or new training, the days before a period and starting creatine can all hold water for days or weeks. Water can mask fat loss for a while, but it doesn’t stop fat loss. Keep going and judge after another two weeks.

8. You move less than before

When people eat less, they often move less without noticing. If your daily steps have dropped by a few thousand since you started, your TDEE has dropped with them. Compare your step count now with your first weeks.

9. Medical reasons and medicines

Some conditions and medicines change appetite, fluid balance or energy use. Examples include an underactive thyroid, polycystic ovary syndrome, and some steroids, antidepressants, antipsychotics and diabetes treatments. If you have other symptoms, or you are confident your log is accurate and nothing has changed in two months, see your doctor. Never stop a prescribed medicine without talking to them first.

How much each cause can hide

Here is roughly how much of a planned deficit each cause can swallow. Several small ones together can easily cancel 500 kcal a day.

None of these feels like overeating, which is exactly why they are so common.

A tenth possibility: you are gaining muscle

If you recently started strength training, you may be gaining some muscle while losing fat. The scale moves slowly, but your waist shrinks and your lifts go up. That is progress, not a problem.

The checklist

1. Have I followed the target for at least three to four weeks?
2. Am I comparing weekly averages and my waist, not single weigh-ins?
3. Is my activity level honest for a normal week?
4. Have I weighed and logged everything, including oils, drinks and weekends, for a full week?
5. Am I logging raw and cooked foods correctly?
6. Do my weekends undo my weekdays?
7. Am I eating back exercise calories?
8. Has my daily step count fallen?
9. Could water be masking progress: cycle, salt, stress, new training?
10. Do I have symptoms that need a doctor’s check?

Measure your real TDEE

The fastest way to settle the question is to measure. Eat a steady, fully logged amount for three to four weeks, weigh yourself every morning, then:

Real TDEE = average calories eaten − (weight change in kg × 7,700 ÷ days)

If your weight didn’t change, your real TDEE equals your average intake, so your target needs to be below that. The adaptive TDEE calculator does this for you and fits a trend line through your weigh-ins.

What to do next

Fix logging first, because no other change works if you don’t know what you are eating. Then make one change at a time: about 2,000 more steps a day, or 100 to 150 kcal less. Reassess after two to three weeks. If you have been dieting for months and feel exhausted, a week or two at maintenance may help more than cutting further; see our plateau guide.

Questions when you are not losing weight

How long should I wait before deciding I’m not losing weight?

Three to four weeks of consistent eating and daily weigh-ins. Earlier than that, water changes can hide or exaggerate fat loss.

Should I cut more calories or exercise more?

First make sure your logging is accurate. Then either add about 2,000 daily steps or reduce intake by 100 to 150 kcal, one change at a time. Walking is often the easier first step.

Is my metabolism broken?

Very unlikely. In studies, the gap between expected and actual weight loss is usually explained by intake being higher than recorded and activity lower than reported. A health check is sensible if you have other symptoms.

Why am I gaining weight on a deficit?

Usually water: a new training plan, salty food, stress or your menstrual cycle. If the gain continues for more than three weeks, your intake is probably above your real TDEE.

Can eating too little stop weight loss?

Not in the sense of stopping fat loss completely. But very low intakes often lead to less movement, muscle loss and episodes of overeating, which together can stall progress. A moderate deficit works better.

Do I need to weigh my food?

Not forever, but weighing everything for a week or two is the best way to find hidden calories and learn what your portions really are.

Can I be in a calorie deficit and not lose fat?

Not over several weeks. A true deficit always leads to fat loss over time, although water can hide it for a while. If weeks pass with no change at all, the deficit isn’t really there.

What if I’m sure I’m doing everything right?

Then measure. Log everything carefully for three to four weeks, weigh daily and work out your real TDEE. If it is far lower than expected and your log is complete, see a doctor to rule out health problems.

Does alcohol stop weight loss?

Not directly, but it adds up quickly. A pint of beer or a large glass of wine is about 180 to 230 kcal, and drinking often leads to bigger meals and late snacks. Log every drink and plan for it in your weekly total.

Why do I lose on weekdays and gain it back at weekends?

Weekend meals are usually bigger, saltier and later, so you get extra calories and extra water. Some of Monday’s rise clears by midweek. If your weekly average still isn’t falling, the weekend is eating your deficit.

Could my medication be stopping weight loss?

Some medicines affect appetite, fluid or weight. If you think yours might, talk to your doctor. Don’t stop or change it on your own.

Sources

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6. American Thyroid Association. Thyroid and weight. Patient information. www.thyroid.org/thyroid-and-weight/